A Geiger counter counts the number of alpha particles from radioactive material. Over a long period of time, an average of 15 particles per minute occurs. Assume the arrival of particles at the counter follows a Poisson distribution.
a) Find the probability of exactly 20 particles arrive in a particular one minute period.
b) Find the probability of exactly one particle arrives in a particular one second period.
c) Find the probability that at least one particle arrives in a particular one second period.
d) Find the probability that at least two particles arrive in a particular 4 second period.
1 Answers
Best Answer
Step 1
From provided information,
An average of 15 particles per minute occurs,
Mean of poisson distribution (m)=15
Process following poisson distribution and probability mass function is, P (X=x)= (e^(-m)m^(x))/(x!)
a) The required probability of exactly 20 particles arrive in one minute of period can be obtained as: P (X=20)= (e^(-15)15^(20))/(20!)=0.04181
Therefore, probability that exactly 20 particles arrive in one minute of period is 0.04181.
b) The required probability of exactly one particle arrives in one second period can be obtained as:
One minute=15 particles
60 seconds=15 particles
1 second=0.25 particle
So, here m=0.25
P (X=1)= (e^(-0.25)0.25^(1))/(1!)=0.19470
Therefore, probability that exactly one particle arrives in one second period is 0.19470.
c) The required probability that at least one particle arrives in particular one second period can be obtained as: P (X>=1)=1-P (X=0) =1- (e^(-0.25)0.25^(0))/(0!) =0.80529
Therefore probability that at least one particle arrives in particular one second period is 0.80529.
1. d) The required probability that at least two particles arrive in particular four second period can be
obtained as:
in 1 second 0.25 particle arrives, so in 4 seconds 1 particle will arrive.
Therefore m=1, P (X>=2)=1- [P (X=0)+P (X=1) ] =1- [ ((e^(-1)1^(0))/(0!))+ ((e^(-1)1^(1))/(1!)) ] =0.26426
So, probability that at least two particles arrive in particular four second period is 0.26426.