The probability that a regulary seheduted flightdeparts on time is 0.83 ,
the probability that it arrives on time is 0.92 and the probability that it departs
and arrives on time is 0.78 . Find the probability thata plane
(1) arrives on time given thatit departed on time .
(2) departed on time given that it has arrived on time .
1 Answers
Best Answer
Step 1
Probability of an event is ratio of total number of favourable outcomes for the event to total number of possible outcomes of the experiment. If there are two event A and B, the probability of event A when event B has already been occurred, is called conditional probability.
The formula of conditional probability is P (A mid B)= (P (A ∩ B))/(P (B))the value P (A ∩ B) represents the probability when both the events A and B occurs together.
Step 2
Lets A denotes the event that flight arrives on time and 8 represents the event that the flight departures on
time, So the given probabilities are P (A)=0.92, P (D)=0.83 text and P (A ∩ D)=0.78.
For the first part, apply the conditional probability formula to find the value of P (A mid D) and substitute the
values.
P (A mid D) (P (A ∩ D))/(P (D))
= (0.78)/(0.83)
~0.94
So the probability that the arrival is on time when the departure was on time will be ~imately 0.94.
Step 3
For the next part, apply the conditional probability formula to find the value of P (D mid A) and substitute the values.
NSP
P (D mid A) (P (A ∩ D))/(P (A))
= (0.78)/(0.92)
~0.85
So the probability that the departure was on time when the arrival was on time will be ~imately 0.85.